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Investment boom on the horizon: real estate investment volume to hit new heights by 2028

Low interest rates and favorable financing terms: retail growth, residential market challenges, and logistics in transition

July 18, 2025

By Noortje Franssen

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Mid Year Report

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Roos Bitterlin

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Mid Year Report

The Dutch real estate market is expected to reach a new investment peak within the next few years, according to CBRE’s Mid-Year Real Estate Market Outlook Report. Despite the mixed performance, including a 9% increase in real estate investment volume during the first half of 2025 and notable growth in the retail sector, the residential market is experiencing challenges due to the withdrawal of private investors and foreign pension funds. The upward trend in investment volume, combined with persistently low ECB interest rates and increased willingness to finance, points to a significant increase in volume over the ensuing two to three years. 

Capital flows and international dynamics 

The real estate investment cycle is trending upwards, supported by a stronger occupier market and anticipated rental growth expectations. Foreign capital continues to be a significant influence, but fiscal measures, such as increased transfer taxes, are discouraging international investors from entering the Dutch market. This has a particular impact on the office and residential sectors. Despite the geopolitical tensions, the willingness to provide financing has expanded; 80% of the non-bank investors intend to increase their investments. CBRE expects the recently announced US trade tariffs to have a moderate impact on the market. 

Erik Langens, Managing Director at CBRE Netherlands: “Only 6% of Dutch exports are directed to the United States, with the majority tied to European trade flows. Furthermore, given the increase in trade tariffs, CBRE sees more opportunities for broader cooperation with Asian markets. The increased investment volume in the first half of 2025 emphasizes the confidence in the market, despite a politically uncertain time and sectoral differences.”

Interest rates and domestic dynamics create new momentum 
The reduction in the ECB interest rate at the beginning of 2025, with the prospect of a further decline in the fall, is boosting the real estate market. Financing conditions have improved significantly: prime assets are currently financed at lower margins (150 to 180 basic points). This increases the investment scope for domestic parties that are now taking the lead in transactions. 

The active role of municipalities as buyers is striking: they were responsible for almost 6% of the total volume in the first half of 2025, compared to 0.5% in previous years. According to CBRE, by purchasing land positions or real estate themselves, they hope to gain more control over area development and accelerate realisation. This shift underlines the changing playing field, in which public parties are increasingly taking a leading role in the real estate chain. 

Recovery varies by sector 
The total investment volume has increased by 31% compared to last year, mainly due to the privatization strategies involving existing rental properties. Nevertheless, the residential market remains under pressure. Until now, 2,000 rental homes have been purchased by investors. Given the demand, the desired numbers balance between 20,000 and 30,000 per year. In addition, new construction is not forthcoming due to international tax inequality and limited supply. The stricter programming is driving the preference for mid-market rental housing and ensures that many projects do not have a chance to develop. 

The recovery in retail is convincing: the investment volume increased by 61% to €900 million in the first half of 2025. In line with neighbourhood shopping centres and high street locations, interest is shifting to large shopping centres. This confirms confidence in shopping streets. 

The logistics sector shows a mixed performance. Although investment volume declined by almost 34%, the number of bids on available assets is increasing, indicating increasing liquidity. CBRE expects this investment volume to reach a similar level as last year, with the first half of 2025 giving a distorted picture. Finally, the decline in e-commerce has led to a contraction in the new-build pipeline, which heralds the end of the “verdozingsdiscussie”, meaning the public debate around the overdevelopment of logistics real estate. 
About CBRE Group, Inc
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE: CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm and a premier provider of critical infrastructure services (based on 2025 revenue). The company has more than 155,000 employees (including Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves clients through four business segments: Advisory (leasing, sales, debt origination, mortgage servicing, valuations); Building Operations & Experience (facilities management, property management, flex space & experience, data center solutions); Project Management (program management, project management, cost consulting); Real Estate Investments (investment management, development). Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.

 

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